The End Times and Human Extinction
The end of the world, the time when humans will cease to exist and vanish from Earth, has been a popular topic in science fiction and horror movies. However, is it conceivable that humans will become extinct or vanish in the future? Scientists say "yes."
According to a recently published report by scientists at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, a mass extinction of mammals, including humans, may occur in 250 million years due to climate change.
Research Methodology
Scientists at the University of Bristol used a supercomputer to analyze data on geology, climate change, and tectonic plate shifts, which are the enormous slabs of rock that make up our planet's surface, to predict the future of life on Earth.
Alexander Farnsworth, a paleontologist at the University of Bristol, and colleagues predict that mammals, including humans, may only survive for another 250 million years. The study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience on September 25th.
The research team concluded that climate conditions will become inhospitable due to three factors: a brighter sun, shifting continental geography, and increased carbon dioxide levels.
The Sun's Impact
Astronomers have predicted that the sun will gradually grow brighter and eventually "swallow" the Earth in approximately 7.6 billion years. However, life may not last that long. As the sun releases more energy towards Earth, the atmosphere will heat up, increasing the rate of water vapor evaporation from oceans and landmasses. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, trapping additional heat. In two billion years, Earth may become hot enough to boil the oceans.
Pangea Ultima and Climate Change
Farnsworth's research predicts that a new supercontinent called Pangea Ultima will form along the equator in 250 million years. He enlisted Christopher Scotese, a retired University of Texas geophysicist, and other specialists to conduct detailed simulations of this distant future, tracking the atmosphere above oceans, the supercontinent, and mountain ranges.
The team found that Pangea Ultima is likely to be much hotter than today's continents. One reason is the brightening sun. Every 110 million years, the energy output of the sun increases by 1%.
The supercontinent exacerbates the situation because land heats up faster than oceans. With all the continents concentrated into one giant landmass, there will be a large surface area for temperatures to rise.
Pangea Ultima's topography also contributes to the climate impact. If Pangea Ultima resembles past supercontinents, volcanic eruptions that expel carbon dioxide will be rampant, according to the study. Due to chaotic movements of molten rock deep underground, volcanoes can release substantial amounts of CO2 over thousands of years, spiking temperatures. In comparison, humans currently emit more than 40 billion tons of carbon from fossil fuels each year.
Mammals and Extinction
Most of Pangea Ultima will become too hot for mammals, including humans, to survive. A mass extinction is likely to wipe out all of them. Farnsworth suggests that mammals will lose the dominance they've had for the past 65 million years and could be replaced by heat-tolerant cold-blooded reptiles.
Solutions and the Future
What options will humans consider to prevent the scientists' "end of the world" scenario from unfolding? Will we migrate to other planets such as Mars or the Moon, or will we find solutions to reduce greenhouse gases and slow the pace of global warming? Only time will tell.