Temperature Records Shattered, Leading to Fatalities
In the early months of 2024, a blistering heat wave has gripped hundreds of millions of people across South and Southeast Asia. The unseasonably high temperatures have broken records and claimed lives, leaving a devastating impact on the region. CBS News reports that the heat is expected to worsen throughout May and June.
At the beginning of May, intense heat waves caused dozens of deaths across the region. Thousands of schools have been forced to close weeks ahead of summer holidays.
Scientists Warn of Widespread Impacts
Scientists warn of the wide-ranging implications in some of the world's most populous areas, urging governments to take immediate action to prepare for the effects of climate change and human-induced global warming.
Record-Breaking Temperatures and Deaths
Parts of India have recorded maximum temperatures exceeding 43 degrees Celsius in the past month. On April 21st, the eastern city of Bhagdora experienced a scorching 46 degrees Celsius.
On April 29th, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a "red alert" for the eastern and southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Odisha, where temperatures have been soaring since mid-April. The IMD warns that the heat wave is likely to intensify further.
At least two deaths in the southern state of Kerala have been attributed to suspected heatstroke over the weekend. Two other deaths in the state of Odisha earlier in April were also reportedly caused by the heat.
Authorities in neighboring Bangladesh have been forced to close all schools twice in the past two weeks due to the heat and temperatures reaching close to 43 degrees Celsius.
Extreme Heat in Southeast Asia
Parts of Myanmar have recorded record-breaking temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius. The "feels like" temperature—which factors in humidity, wind speed, and other elements—can be even higher.
In the Philippines, thousands of schools have closed as large areas of the country face drought and temperatures that reached 44 degrees Celsius in early April.
In Thailand, the government has urged people to stay indoors whenever possible after 30 heat stroke-related deaths were reported this year. In Bangkok, officials recorded a "dangerously high" heat index of 44.1 degrees Celsius on May 2nd.
Climate Change and El Nino
Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera noted in a social media post last week that "thousands of records are being broken across Asia with this being the hottest event in world climate history."
Scientists have varying views on the impact of the ongoing El Nino weather pattern, but many believe the temporary warming of the central Pacific Ocean has been altering weather patterns around the globe for several years. This has contributed to the extreme summer temperatures now affecting South and Southeast Asia.
"I think it is a combination of El Nino, global warming, and the seasonality. El Nino is transitioning into La Nina. This is a time when the maximum warming occurs in the Indian Ocean," said Professor Raghu Murtugudde, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay.
Murtugudde notes that El Nino has been present since March 2023, so the heat waves last year were also likely caused by a combination of global warming, El Nino, and the annual cycle. However, he said this year is even worse due to the transition to La Nina.
El Nino vs. Global Warming
Not all climate scientists agree on the extent of El Nino's impact.
"We saw heat waves last year and that was not because of El Nino," said Professor Krishna AchutaRao, a scientist at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi.
Last year, severe heat waves killed more than 100 people in India and Pakistan alone during April and May, once again destroying crops and affecting millions.
"Like this year, last year the heat wave extended from parts of India to Bangladesh and Myanmar, and ended in Thailand. This year it extended further east to the Philippines. I don't think El Nino is responsible," said AchutaRao.
However, most experts agree that climate change is a major contributing factor to the deadly heat waves now gripping Asia.
AchutaRao, along with other scientists working with the World Weather Attribution organization, compiled and analyzed data on last year's heat waves in the region and dozens of other extreme weather events in Laos and Thailand. The group "concluded that such extreme heat would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change."
"Climate change is making such events more frequent and severe, with far-reaching impacts on our societies, economies, and, importantly, human lives and the ecosystems we depend on," said Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, last month.
Who Suffers Most?
Murtugudde said that while the world has made some progress in managing extreme weather events through early warning and advisory systems, it is Asia's vast and impoverished population that bears the brunt of the heat waves.
The heat can cause significant crop damage, further depressing the lives of farmers who in recent years have faced increasing challenges.
Restrictions on outdoor work intended to prevent heatstroke fatalities disproportionately affect manual laborers in the construction industry—a substantial part of rapidly developing Asian economies.
Scientists and environmental activists worldwide have repeatedly called for nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions, warning that it is the only way to slow global warming. Until that happens, experts fear that the death toll will continue to rise and millions more will face a tragic choice during each heat wave: work in dangerous conditions or go to bed hungry.