Pangea Ultima: Earth's Future Supercontinent

Tectonics and Continental Drift

Pangea Ultima is a hypothetical future supercontinent predicted to form in the next 100 to 200 million years.

According to the theory of plate tectonics, the Earth's tectonic plates collide, merge, and split apart, creating gigantic landmasses known as supercontinents. The movement and interaction of these plates over millions of years have caused the continents to drift continuously across the planet's surface.

Alfred Wegener, a German polymath, proposed the theory of continental drift in the early 20th century, stating that landmasses were not fixed in place. Extensive research and investigations since then have confirmed the validity of his theory. Evidence includes the distribution of fossils underground, the matching coastlines, and other geological similarities shared between continents that are now far apart.

The Formation of Pangea Ultima

Continental drift, however, does not occur overnight. It takes millions of years for continents to collide. When they do, they form mountain ranges and shape the interiors of the continents. When all the continents merge into one large landmass, a supercontinent is formed. Scientists currently predict that a similar process will take place in approximately 100 to 250 million years, resulting in the formation of Pangea Ultima, Earth's next supercontinent.

Researchers from the University of Bristol suggest that in about 250 million years, all continents will have combined into a single supercontinent called Pangea Ultima.

Pangea Ultima may be the newest supercontinent, but it will certainly not be the first. Evidence and research show that Earth has experienced several supercontinents throughout its history. The most recent supercontinent in Earth's history was Pangea, which existed 335 million to 175 million years ago, spanning the late Paleozoic and early Mesozoic eras. Five other supercontinents are believed to have existed before Pangea: Vaalbara, Ur, Kenorland, Columbia, and Rodinia.

Pangea Ultima, the seventh supercontinent, will be the culmination of Earth's tectonic movements over the next 250 million years. Researchers have predicted its formation using supercomputer simulations and have published their findings in the journal Nature Geoscience. These simulations predict the formation of a new supercontinent positioned near the equator, in the tropics. Along with this geographical placement comes predictions about possible atmospheric changes.

Climate and Habitability

The researchers employed climate models to study potential moisture and temperature patterns in Pangea Ultima. This model is much like the one that provides weather forecasts on the morning news. However, it runs on a supercomputer and is far more complex and powerful. For instance, it can predict things like global levels of CO2 and volcanic gases in the atmosphere.

The formation of supercontinents involves tectonic plates crashing together and merging. The immense pressure of these collisions leads to the creation of mountains and volcanoes. In fact, increased volcanic activity is a prominent feature of supercontinent formation. We will likely see the same if Pangea Ultima forms.

Volcanic activity affects not only the land but also Earth's atmosphere. The eruptions release vast amounts of gases, such as carbon dioxide, into the environment. The accumulation of these gases has significant impacts on the climate, such as increased temperatures and disruption of weather patterns. Researchers suggest that Earth's temperature could reach a staggering 40-50 degrees C (104-122 degrees F) or higher during this time.

Moreover, the researchers believe that along with the increasing temperatures, the weather conditions will become so humid that humans may not be able to survive.

In this new world, average temperatures could exceed 40°C (104°F) in many parts of the globe. Extreme humidity could make matters worse – and that might not be the worst of it.

Although Pangea Ultima may not have the right climate conditions for human habitation, that does not necessarily mean all life on Earth will cease to exist. At least, that's what the formation of the previous supercontinent, Pangea, suggests.

Scientists and geologists believe that Pangea's formation played a role in the mass extinction event that occurred during the Permian period. The rise of Pangea had substantial effects, particularly on marine life. As the supercontinent formed, shallow water habitats diminished, and land barriers prevented cold water from the poles from reaching the tropics. This led to declining oxygen levels in warmer waters around Pangea.

As a result, up to 95% of marine species from the Permian period were wiped off the face of the Earth. However, the story doesn't end there. Both dinosaurs and mammals emerged during the Pangea era. They not only survived but thrived on Earth for many millennia before their extinction around 65 million years ago. This era also saw the rise of pterosaurs and ichthyosaurs.

The researchers emphasize that while it's possible that most mammals could perish due to Pangea Ultima's formation, those adapted to extreme conditions and capable of further adaptation may survive.

The future of humanity on Pangea Ultima may seem bleak, but one thing that sets humans apart from other species on Earth is our resilience. We will likely find better prospects by seeking a new home on a habitable planet beyond our solar system.

Space colonization might sound like the stuff of science fiction, but it could become a reality in the near future. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and founder of SpaceX, outlined plans to work with NASA on Artemis III, the next crewed lunar mission scheduled for 2025. The Starship, a spacecraft being developed for this mission, could help establish a lunar base. Musk also has ambitions to colonize Mars with a city of 1 million people by 2050.

Serkan Saydam, Deputy Director of the Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research and a professor at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, shares this vision and believes human colonization of Mars is possible by 2050. With China planning to send a crewed mission to Mars by 2033 and NASA aiming to put astronauts there in the late 2030s or early 2040s, the quest for humanity's new home may not be as distant as it seems.