Experts predict rising global temperatures could increase turbulence and impact air travel in the future.
Increased Air Turbulence
Air turbulence, the chaotic movement of air, is a normal and sometimes unavoidable part of flying.
Causes of Air Turbulence
Turbulence results from changes in wind speed and direction that occur over a short distance in the atmosphere. When an aircraft hits these bands of wind shear, it can cause the plane to be jolted or tossed in different directions.
Turbulence Impact on Air Travel
Commercial airlines typically fly above these weather patterns to avoid frequent turbulence. However, turbulence can still occur at varying altitudes.
Study on Turbulence Increase
In research published in Nature, scientists at the University of Reading in the UK found that air turbulence has increased by 15% since initial observations in 1979.
Cost of Turbulence
"Clear-air turbulence makes for bumpier flights and can pose risks to passengers and flight crew," said lead researcher Dr. Mark Prosser.
According to the Straits Times, clear-air turbulence poses particular safety risks because current safety equipment is limited in its ability to detect it. Additionally, clear-air turbulence is localized, making it difficult to predict, unlike turbulence caused by storms, which is more detectable and easier to forecast.
"We've now got quite a large body of scientific evidence that shows clear-air turbulence is getting stronger as the climate changes," study co-author Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric science in the department of meteorology at the University of Reading, told Newsweek. "Severe turbulence has increased by more than 15 percent since 1979."
Mitigation and Forecasting
Scientists recommend investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems to mitigate risks for air travel in the coming decades.
Turbulence and Climate Change
Recent months have seen several incidents involving severe air turbulence.
The increase in turbulence is likely linked to climate change's impact on wind speeds in the upper atmosphere. Clear-air turbulence has increased most significantly in recent decades in mid-latitude regions, including the North Atlantic and busy flight paths across the US.
Impact of Climate Change on Jet Streams
The study suggests that global warming may be destabilizing jet streams, which are fast-moving air currents that circle the globe in the Northern Hemisphere, according to study co-author Mark Prosser of the University of Reading in the UK.
Jet streams flow like rivers of air from west to east, fueled by temperature differences between the colder air to the north and warmer air to the south. Climate change is disrupting the delicate balance of the jet stream, potentially with significant implications for future air travel. "Aircraft like to fly in the jet stream because it's efficient, but it's also where the turbulence is," said Prosser.
Experts predict that jet stream disruption will continue to increase as the globe warms. Prosser's colleagues at the University of Reading used climate models to project how mid-latitude clear-air turbulence could change by the end of the century under continued global warming.
Recent Turbulence Incidents
- Early March 2023: Seven people were hospitalized after severe turbulence on a Lufthansa flight from Austin, Texas, to Frankfurt, Germany, NBC News reported. The flight, carrying 184 people, had to be diverted and eventually landed safely.
- December 2022: A Hawaiian Airlines flight from Phoenix, Arizona, to Honolulu, Hawaii, encountered severe turbulence, injuring 25 people. The flight, which had 278 passengers, was reportedly extensively damaged on the inside.
- 2021: An American Airlines flight en route to Florida was diverted to Louisiana after turbulence injured 10 people aboard.
- 2019: At least 35 people were injured when an Air Canada flight from Toronto, Canada, to Sydney, Australia, hit unexpected turbulence. The flight was forced to land in Honolulu.
Global Warming and Climate Impacts
The world is facing a rapidly changing climate. Since 1880, the Earth's average temperature has risen by an average of 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate.gov website.
Safety and Fatalities
While fatalities from turbulence are rare, major injuries are not uncommon, according to Larry Cornman, a physicist and project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in an article for Scientific American. Corman studies small-scale motions in the atmosphere that can pose hazards to aircraft. In the United States, there have been no fatalities on major commercial airliners due to turbulence since 2009, according to the National Transportation Safety Board. Between 2009 and 2023, turbulence has caused 185 serious injuries out of millions of flights.
The University of Reading researchers estimate that human-caused climate change could increase severe turbulence three-fold by the 2050s to 2080s.